Four Reasons for Rangers Fans to be Optimistic About the 2021 Season
Alright, let’s not mince words here. The 2021 Rangers probably won’t be winning very many games this year. Most major projections have them dwelling in the basement of the AL West once again. Bummer. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be some fun storylines and things to watch this season! We’re optimists on this blog. So, without further ado, here are four reasons for the glass-half-full Rangers fan to watch the team, regardless of the score.
The Existence of Joey Gallo
No elaboration needed. Seriously, if you’re looking for a non-player development reason to watch the 2021 Rangers, this is it. Gallo’s a threat to launch one 450+ feet every time he steps in the box, and there’s no denying the entertainment value that comes with that, no matter how many times he strikes out or pops up. There’s also his Gold Glove-worthy defense, headlined by his absolute cannon of an arm.
I really wish Statcast would make their arm strength data publicly available. In addition to great throws like that one, Gallo excels at the little things that all great outfielders do — like preventing a double on this hit by cutting it off before it gets to the wall.
Part of the reason Gallo is able to hold Stewart to a single there is because of his reputation as someone with a strong arm. Plays like that one won’t top the highlight reels, but are important in constructing a competent defensive team.
For those who want more than just homers and laser beams from the outfield, there will be important areas of Joey’s game to watch in terms of his development as a player. A key stat to monitor will be his walk rate, or BB%. In his All-Star 2019 season, he had an absurdly high 17.5% walk rate, which was 3rd in the entire league among players with at least 250 plate appearances. When Gallo demonstrates patience and lays off pitches in the chase zone (something he’s excelled at in the last few years), he normally either gets a good pitch to hit or works a walk — both highly desirable outcomes. For a player who has more career home runs than singles, he’ll need to be working walks at a healthy rate to contribute to the offense when he isn’t hitting home runs.
Gallo leads the way in terms of “reasons to watch the Rangers in 2021”, but he also leads the way in terms of “reasons to be optimistic for the future of this team”. His powerful bat and stellar defense are the foundation that could make him a franchise player for the Rangers — he just needs to work through a few holes in his offense. This year, we could see him put the pieces together and take the leap, and that’s endlessly exciting.
One thing to watch: If you don’t care about advanced stats, then watch the ferocity of his swings and how many balls he launches to the upper decks of various stadiums. For the more analytically-inclined fans out there, pay attention to his walk rate. When it’s high, he’s seeing the ball well, and he’s much more dangerous as a hitter. Check out my recent piece for a far more in-depth look at Gallo’s game.
An Intriguing New Middle Infield Duo
I’ve already written a considerable amount about Isiah Kiner-Falefa and how intriguing he is; there’s not much more I can say about him here. It’ll be interesting to watch how his slick defense at third base last year translates to shortstop this year. I think he’s more than capable, and he’s more than ready to prove that to the rest of the league. It’s also worth watching how his offense develops, if at all, now that he’s been positioned in the leadoff spot in the lineup. I’m not sure he’s a high enough on-base percentage guy to justify a long-term fixture in that position, but he is among the league leaders in contact percentage, whiff rate, and strikeout rate, making him a defensible choice for that spot despite his complete aversion to walks.
Nick Solak is also quite an intriguing player (and the subject of my next incredibly wordy player breakdown — stay tuned!). He’s a versatile 26-year-old who’s played multiple infield positions along with spending some time in the revolving door of left field for the Rangers in 2020. The big thing with Solak, though, is his bat. He’s shown elite potential offensively; in 2020, his max exit velocity was in the 84th percentile of all MLB hitters. However, his hard-hit rate was only in the 55th percentile. He’ll need to start hitting the ball harder with more consistency to unlock his full potential as an offensive player. He can also be a legitimate weapon on the bases — last year his sprint speed topped out at 28.6 feet per second, just shy of the elite 30 ft/s mark, but still in the 91st percentile of the league. If he can put the pieces together this year, he could establish himself as a long-term presence in the top of the Rangers’ lineup. He projects as someone who can hit for a high batting average and decent power along with great speed and competent infield defense, and that skillset will be welcomed on the next good Rangers team.
One thing to watch:
- Kiner-Falefa: he ranked near the bottom of the league in nearly every statistic related to hitting the ball hard last year. Keep an eye on his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate to see if he’s developing into a legitimate offensive threat.
- Solak: The offense will be there; keep an eye on Solak’s defense this year. It’ll likely be the first year of his brief career where he isn’t playing multiple positions, and he’s had pretty poor defensive numbers everywhere he has played so far. Look to see if consistent playing time at second base following the exodus of Rougned Odor gives his defensive numbers a boost.
The Potential Resurgence of Two Former All-Stars
This offseason, the Rangers continued their recent trend of signing “reclamation project” players — those who’d had success previously in their careers, but had fallen on hard times recently. A few of those deals have worked out nicely — Lance Lynn, Mike Minor, Kyle Gibson (maybe?), Hunter Pence (briefly, I guess?) — and a few have not (Drew Smyly, Matt Moore, Corey Kluber, etc). This year, two former All-Stars have been added to the list: David Dahl, formerly of the Colorado Rockies, and Mike Foltynewicz, formerly of the Atlanta Braves. Both players had incredible runs with their former teams before having disastrous 2020 seasons, and as a result, the Rangers were able to sign both players for less than five million dollars combined.
Dahl’s breakout season came in 2019, when he slashed 0.302/0.353/0.524 with a 110 wRC+ and 0.364 wOBA, earning himself an appearance at the National League All-Star Game. Although he posted impressive numbers in Colorado, any Rockies player must be examined with additional care due to the insane offensive environment that is Coors Field. From 2016–2019, Dahl was an above-average hitter at Coors Field according to wRC+. He posted a below average wRC+ on the road in each of those three seasons (he missed all of 2017 with an injury). It definitely appears that Dahl’s numbers have been inflated by playing at Coors Field. Dahl looked to be a core part of the Rockies’ future until his career was a bit derailed by injuries, and he missed 98 games over the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Now, he looks to bounce back with the Rangers. Though Dahl may not truly be the great hitter he appeared to be in Colorado, he certainly has the tools of a competent hitter. Texas doesn’t present as friendly of a run environment as Colorado, but it’s still a favorable place to hit, although the new stadium complicates that a bit. If he can stay healthy, Dahl has a chance to prove nerds like me wrong and show he’s more than just a product of Coors field.
Mike Foltynewicz, on the other hand, has had a much different career. After he had a pretty mediocre first 5 years in the league, he had a breakout 2018 season, posting 3.8 fWAR thanks to a career-high 96.4 mph average fastball velocity and a (at the time) career-best 43.1% groundball rate. He returned to his career norms in 2019, and after getting shelled in the 2019 playoffs, he lasted just one start in 2020 before being designated for assignment by the Braves. Of particular concern was his cratering velocity, averaging 94.5 mph on fastballs in 2019 and just 91.5 in his 3.1 innings in 2020. In his last full season in 2019, he gave up more hard contact, missed fewer bats, and had more trouble with home runs. I’m not sure if a return to his 2018 form is realistic; some signs point towards that being more of an exception than a norm for him. However, given how he just fell off a cliff in his last few starts with Atlanta, I’d say a return to his full-season numbers in 2019 would count as a good bounce-back year for him. His velocity looked good during spring training and has continued to be encouraging in a few 2021 starts. We’ll have to see how he responds after the most challenging time in his professional career.
One thing to watch:
- Dahl: keep an eye on Dahl’s barrel rate. Like many players, it correlates strongly with his overall offensive performance. It was a career low 3% last year, after being a career high 10.3% in 2019. Dahl’s inability to hit the ball hard last year was a key factor in his dreadful season.
- Foltynewicz: his groundball rate is a key stat — he’s had his best stuff when he’s kept it above 40%. Also, he’s had trouble with giving up home runs; if he can keep his HR/FB% down (perhaps below 15%?) he should have a better year. Playing in the monstrous Globe Life Field should help with that.
Player Development
The single most important thing for the Rangers in 2021 will be player development. This is a chance for a large crew of unproven players to show what they’ve got and see if they’re ready to be a part of the next contending Rangers team. There quite a few young Rangers this year; there are just 6 players who are 30 or older on the current 40-man roster. The youth movement is here, and it’s time to see who’s who among this crowd of young players. Among this group are some former top Rangers prospects, some new faces, and some lesser-known names. There are enough of these players to warrant their own entire breakdown, so in the absence of that, here’s one thing to watch out for among three of the best and brightest young Rangers.
Leody Taveras: This 22-year-old switch-hitter from the Dominican Republic was the Rangers’ fourth-ranked prospect last year. He boasts an elite sprint speed of 29.4 feet per second, putting him in the top 2% of the league. This quickness gives him great range in center field, where he also boasts an elite glove. The question for him will be whether he gets on base enough to turn that speed into a weapon. He’s looked fairly overmatched so far at the plate, striking out a hefty 32.1% of his plate appearances last year and an ungodly 44.1% of them this year. Expect him to get some time at triple-A when the minor league season opens up in May. If he can rein in those strikeouts and get on base at a good clip, he could steal that leadoff spot in the order from Isiah Kiner-Falefa before too long.
Nate Lowe: Lowe certainly is a bigger name than anyone else here after coming over from the highly-touted Rays system, but he’s still just 25 years old. He just never found enough playing time with on a stacked Rays roster competing for the AL pennant every year. In brief flashes, he’s shown the potential to be a very good hitter, posting a max exit velocity in the top 3% of hitters in each of the past two seasons. He’s off to a nice start this year, and he has a chance to lock down the first base position for a long time. He also could prove that the Rays are capable of losing trades every once in while.
Dane Dunning: One of the newest Rangers is this 26-year-old righty from the Chicago White Sox, acquired in this offseason’s Lance Lynn trade. He started seven games for the White Sox last year and posted a 3.97 ERA with a 3.99 FIP and a 1.12 WHIP. He doesn’t feature dominant stuff, relying on a sinker that averages about 91 mph. His success comes via locating and effectively utilizing his mixture of five pitch types to generate weak contact. He does a good job of keeping his secondary pitches, namely a slider and a changeup, on the lower part of the strike zone, and this in combination with his high-spin sinker helped him induce groundballs on a healthy 44% of his batted balls last year. He could solidify himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter who throws a healthy amount of innings this year.
In Conclusion
It will be a long season. There will be many losses. Barring extraordinary performances from nearly everyone on the roster, there will be no avoiding a high amount of losses. But there’s still some fun players on this team, and there’s plenty of interesting things for the future-minded fan to watch this year. Besides, the current version of this team is far from what it will resemble in September. The team has been devastated by injuries, losing Willie Calhoun, Ronald Guzman, Jonathan Hernandez, Jose Leclerc, Sam Huff, Brock Holt, Khris Davis, and Brock Burke, among others. And that’s not even mentioning Josh Jung, the Rangers’ number one prospect, who’s currently dealing with an injury but should be ready to go shortly after the minor league season begins in May. There’s little doubt that he’ll be on the big-league club at some point, kicking Charlie Culberson and/or Brock Holt to the curb. When that happens, he’ll shoot to the top of this list. Until then, there’s plenty of things to watch that should inspire hope for the future.
Thanks for reading! As always, any feedback is appreciated. Credit to Baseball Savant and Fangraphs for all data. Check out my blog and my Twitter for more.